Discussion:
Interesting Feb 2016 from UAH satellite data
(too old to reply)
JohnD
2016-03-01 17:46:55 UTC
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Deviation from 81-10 baseline for Feb 2016 is +0.83C. Wonder if this will
need to be revised for some reason?

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Will be interested to follow some of the comments on the blog, though it
will almost certainly get totally hijacked by the usual suspects standing on
their heads.
JohnD
2016-03-01 19:21:07 UTC
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And I see the comments have already started including one from Roy Spencer
as a comment in his own blog:

'I don’t have a strong opinion on what will happen. If I had to, I’d guess
we will go back to a slow warming trend, even if we get a good La Nina in
the next couple years.

I’d love to see warming stop entirely, which is still a possibility…but I
wouldn’t bet on it. Easy for people to make long range predictions when no
one will remember how wrong you were.'

Interesting to see that even Spencer is warming to a 'slow warming trend'.
Lawrence Jenkins
2016-03-01 19:48:48 UTC
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Post by JohnD
And I see the comments have already started including one from Roy Spencer
'I don't have a strong opinion on what will happen. If I had to, I'd guess
we will go back to a slow warming trend, even if we get a good La Nina in
the next couple years.
I'd love to see warming stop entirely, which is still a possibility...but I
wouldn't bet on it. Easy for people to make long range predictions when no
one will remember how wrong you were.'
Interesting to see that even Spencer is warming to a 'slow warming trend'.
All cooling off now John.
JohnD
2016-03-02 07:49:39 UTC
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Post by Lawrence Jenkins
All cooling off now John.
Really don't know what that comment might relate to - could be anything? If
you mean the UAH temperature series then for sure it will decline again at
some point soon, but possibly not for a month or two yet. And the upward
longer-term trend will continue regardless, as Roy Spencer now appears to
accept is inevitable.
JohnD
2016-03-03 08:42:37 UTC
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Post by Lawrence Jenkins
All cooling off now John.
Any clues please as to what you meant?
Lawrence Jenkins
2016-03-03 15:11:28 UTC
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Post by JohnD
Post by Lawrence Jenkins
All cooling off now John.
Any clues please as to what you meant?
El Nino on the Wane and natural forcing saying things are going down. Hold on to your woolly hat and don't give away that balaclava
Togless
2016-03-03 16:11:59 UTC
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Post by Lawrence Jenkins
El Nino on the Wane and natural forcing saying things are going down.
But natural forcings aren't in charge any more. We are.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
Paul Garvey
2016-03-03 17:49:01 UTC
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Quite clear.
Lawrence Jenkins
2016-03-03 20:17:15 UTC
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Post by Togless
Post by Lawrence Jenkins
El Nino on the Wane and natural forcing saying things are going down.
But natural forcings aren't in charge any more. We are.
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
Therein dear Toggers lies the rub.
Paul Garvey
2016-03-03 18:26:48 UTC
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Larry now trying to say that 'natural forcings' (undefined, of course; he has no idea what these might be, but it's a good denier crock phrase that sounds as if it means something) are causing GW, not, of course, anthropogenic CO2. He's been reading Watts again.

😂😂😂😂😂😂

Maybe he should take note of what Spencer has been saying, but Spencer has been saying something he doesn't want to hear, so he doesn't listen to Spencer, either.
Lawrence Jenkins
2016-03-03 20:44:55 UTC
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Post by Paul Garvey
Larry now trying to say that 'natural forcings' (undefined, of course; he has no idea what these might be, but it's a good denier crock phrase that sounds as if it means something) are causing GW, not, of course, anthropogenic CO2. He's been reading Watts again.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Maybe he should take note of what Spencer has been saying, but Spencer has been saying something he doesn't want to hear, so he doesn't listen to Spencer, either.
I don't believe the Milankovitch cycles are not with out doubters either , in other woods we should not be so cocky as to thing we know everything or at least the prime drivers of climate change. I believe it was the fifties when William Hapgood prosed catastrophic Pole Shift as a means for crust displacement and of course so many Poles have now shifted to the England that some may say he was spot on. However I jest. No the point is that Hapgood's theory got displaced instead and almost immediately by Tectonic Plate Theory. Yet one of Hapgood's greatest champions was also one of the greatest minds ever, Einstein.



"Support for this theory was given in a forward by Albert Einstein to one of Hagood’s books in 1953:

In a polar region there is continual deposition of ice, which is not symmetrically distributed about the pole. The earth’s rotation acts on these unsymmetrically deposited masses, and produces centrifugal momentum that is transmitted to the rigid crust of the earth. The constantly increasing centrifugal momentum produced in this way will, when it has reached a certain point, produce a movement of the earth’s crust over the rest of the earth’s body... (Hapgood, 1958, p. 1) "



So the moral of this story is oh cocky bleeder . That we've only just started using electricity, only had a hundred years of powered flight and even in the fifties the science of understanding the movement of the earths crust was still in dispute. So called idiots like you who think grasping and looking good at a topic for vanities sake is to look at the current best scientific odds and then go with it claiming you agree with that particular science because you are a supreme intellectual and grasp the subject matter beyond all doubt. So I have no doubt that you would have backed the Hapgood/Einstein ticket for explanation of evidence of crust movement.

Me. I don't claim to be a scientist or intellectual but I do know that humans understanding of the planet has accelerated like that old Mann Hockey stick, the last 300 years , which inconveniently coincides with the harnessing of fossil fuel, but in that acceleration of knowledge scientific theories like the primary cause of duodenal and stomach ulceration can be turned totally on its head within decades.
Paul Garvey
2016-03-04 08:29:24 UTC
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Post by Paul Garvey
Larry now trying to say that 'natural forcings' (undefined, of course; he has no idea what these might be, but it's a good denier crock phrase that sounds as if it means something) are causing GW, not, of course, anthropogenic CO2. He's been reading Watts again.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Maybe he should take note of what Spencer has been saying, but Spencer has been saying something he doesn't want to hear, so he doesn't listen to Spencer, either.
Me. I don't claim to be a scientist or intellectual.....
No you are an idiot for your continued belief that humans are not highly likely to be causing the current warming.
Graham Easterling
2016-03-04 09:23:24 UTC
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SNIP

However I jest. No the point is that Hapgood's theory got displaced instead and almost immediately by Tectonic Plate Theory. Yet one of Hapgood's greatest champions was also one of the greatest minds ever, Einstein.
Interestingly, though nothing to do with the weather, I am currently reading Brian Cox book on quantum physics (I like "life the universe & everything" books - I'm even coming to understand bits) Einstein was a disbeliever in quantum physics. Essentially he hated the idea that quantum physics only predicted probabilities.

Only goes to show that even the best of brains can be later proved to be wrong. Only Paul Garvey can always be totally certain.

None of this is refuting AGW by the way - anyone who reads my posts will know my view on the matter, basically take more care with what we are doing, or it'll come back and bite. This is especially true if the circulation flips to another setup. Something like that referred to in the Graham's NAD posts, which I didn't reply to, but found interesting. A slightly different view. I also hate the concentration of the argument on CO2, whilst the rainforests have been destroyed to such an extent that the Amazon basin is no longer a significant CO2 sink. (Google it & you'll see what I mean)

There have been various periods in the Earths history when the antarctic has been frozen, the arctic ice free. It would be interesting to know the circulation patterns from then

Graham
Penzance
Graham P Davis
2016-03-04 09:45:49 UTC
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On Fri, 4 Mar 2016 01:23:24 -0800 (PST)
. . . the rainforests have been destroyed to
such an extent that the Amazon basin is no longer a significant CO2
sink. (Google it & you'll see what I mean)
Apparently, the Amazon is now a net producer of CO2 due to the
decomposition of of vegetation resulting from illegal logging.
--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/
Graham Easterling
2016-03-04 11:50:34 UTC
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Post by Graham P Davis
On Fri, 4 Mar 2016 01:23:24 -0800 (PST)
. . . the rainforests have been destroyed to
such an extent that the Amazon basin is no longer a significant CO2
sink. (Google it & you'll see what I mean)
Apparently, the Amazon is now a net producer of CO2 due to the
decomposition of of vegetation resulting from illegal logging.
--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/
Yes, I'd read that in a couple of recent years the Amazon basin had become a net exporter of CO2. Not too mention that significant effect deforestation has had on the climate of the basin.

Graham
Penzance
Paul Garvey
2016-03-04 10:25:43 UTC
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Hahaha. Sure Graham. I'm always certain aren't I? 'Highly likely implies certainty to you, does it? However I'm certain here that you've said something very stupid. Just laughable and it just shows how much you actually read my posts, instead of thinking you know what they might contain.

Don't be silly and please don't expect to have a little dig by a snide reference to me in a post and expect to get away with it. 😀
Graham Easterling
2016-03-04 11:48:37 UTC
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Post by Paul Garvey
Hahaha. Sure Graham. I'm always certain aren't I? 'Highly likely implies certainty to you, does it? However I'm certain here that you've said something very stupid. Just laughable and it just shows how much you actually read my posts, instead of thinking you know what they might contain.
Don't be silly and please don't expect to have a little dig by a snide reference to me in a post and expect to get away with it. 😀
If you are not certain, perhaps you should resist denigrating people who don't share your uncertain views?

I'm pleased to see you never make digs at people in your posts.

Graham
Penzance
Paul Garvey
2016-03-04 14:11:20 UTC
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Post by Graham Easterling
Post by Paul Garvey
Hahaha. Sure Graham. I'm always certain aren't I? 'Highly likely implies certainty to you, does it? However I'm certain here that you've said something very stupid. Just laughable and it just shows how much you actually read my posts, instead of thinking you know what they might contain.
Don't be silly and please don't expect to have a little dig by a snide reference to me in a post and expect to get away with it. 😀
If you are not certain, perhaps you should resist denigrating people who don't share your uncertain views?
I'm pleased to see you never make digs at people in your posts.
Graham
Penzance
Says someone who just did. I'd be pleased to see you never make digs at people in your posts, Graham. OK?

99.99% of published scientists say GW is highly likely (or 'does') cause GW. The time has come to take the gloves off on this one and I always gave the 3-5% likelihood more credence. If people can't give any credible - and I mean credible - reason why CO2 is not likely to be causing the current warming, I'd always be prepared to listen. Idiots don't. They just parrot from other idiots on Watts. Their agendas inhibit sense.
Alan LeHun
2016-03-05 09:35:14 UTC
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Post by Graham Easterling
If you are not certain, perhaps you should resist denigrating people
I am certain that's his raison d'etra.
--
Alan LeHun
Paul Garvey
2016-03-05 09:49:39 UTC
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Another one who does the same. The stench of hypocrisy is alarming.

Your opinion, expressed in one post only designed to attempt to denigrate, is noted and safely ignored. Tree. lehun?
JCW
2016-03-03 19:20:19 UTC
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Post by Lawrence Jenkins
Post by JohnD
Post by Lawrence Jenkins
All cooling off now John.
Any clues please as to what you meant?
El Nino on the Wane and natural forcing saying things are going down. Hold on to your woolly hat and don't give away that balaclava
Lawrence, If you mean Solar activity on the wane, a possibility of a La Nina later and with "favourable" changes in PDO and/or AMO, then I sure hope they're very significant impacts!

The current warming is undeniable, based on the scientific evidence, and them-that-know-more (than me!) suggest that apart from a possible temporary blip as a consequence of the above forcings, the warming will continue!

You might need that balaclava to keep the sun's rays off your face...! ;)

JC
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