Post by N_CookThe local EA alerts and warnings for the Solent area made no mention of
a named storm 08 April. Surge and flooding in the Solent area 23:00 to
00:00 and Pierrick name only seemed to emerge 09 Apr.
A point about that marine flooding event, not noted in the meja.
Researching newspaper reports of local flooding from sea inundation over
220 years, the recent marine flood was the first to occur in a summer
month of April to September, another feature of climate change?
An added reason for the record high sea level reached for Storm Pierrick
affecting the south coast.
The curves here should on average be coincident
https://ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Newlyn&chrt=3
and for other UK ports.
The EA has interpreted the 'errors' as an error with the big data NTSLF
surge predictor.
But luckily in fact its an error with the calibrations of the tide gauges.
There is an anomolous increase in UK mean sea level over recent years,
beyond global SLR and local postglacial isostatic ground movement.
With a couple of NOC researchers currently but looks like due to excess
freshwater from Greenland, Baltic influx etc.
This 'error' is at least 0.15m and for the 3 days including 08/09 Apr
2024 was an rms error of 0.269m .
ie something like 0.27m needed adding to the NTSLF and UKHO tidecurves
and so tidetables, otherwise a normal spring tide this week , before any
surge was added on top.
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Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>